This unit will investigate how individuals and groups make decisions and identify the weaknesses of unaided decision making. It will show how decision analysis can help to overcome these weaknesses in problems where there may be a plurality of objectives, risk and both qualitative and quantitative attributes.
At the end of the course students will be able to:
* identify the problems associated with unaided decision making,
* recognise problems which are amenable to decision analysis,
* implement appropriate decision analysis methods,
* critically evaluate analyses by considering the underlying normative and behavioural assumptions of decision analysis.
* an openness and capacity to continue learning with the ability to reflect on earlier knowledge and practice and integrate the new with past experience and effectively apply it to the present situations. F
* identify biases and deficiencies of observed decision processes, T,A
* evaluate and interpret new information, and engage in problem solving; T,A
* formulate and evaluate decision support models T, A
* demonstrate consistent and effective written communication skills; A
* deal with complex issues and make sound judgements in the absence of complete information, and to communicate their conclusions clearly and competently to a range of audiences. F.
* Descriptive models and theories of individual decision making:
* Problems associated with group decision making.
* Heuristics and biases in probability assessment
* The underlying rationale of decision analysis
* Decision Problems involving multiple objectives under conditions of certainty.
* Decision Problems under conditions of uncertainty
* Structuring decision problems.
* Probability assessment.
* Revision of Opinion in the light of new information.
* Methods designed to aid group decision making.