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## MA40058: Probability with martingales

Owning Department/School: Department of Mathematical Sciences
Credits: 6
Level: Masters UG & PG (FHEQ level 7)
Period: Semester 2
Assessment Summary: EX 100%
Assessment Detail:
• Examination (EX 100%)
Supplementary Assessment: MA40058 Mandatory extra work (where allowed by programme regulations)
Requisites: Before taking this module you must take MA40042 or you must take MA30089 and have consulted the unit lecturer.
Description: Aims:
To stimulate through theory and especially examples, an interest and appreciation of the power and elegance of martingales in analysis and probability. To demonstrate the application of martingales in a variety of contexts, including their use in proving some classical results of probability theory.

Learning Outcomes:
On completing the course, students should be able to:
* demonstrate a good knowledge and understanding of the main results and techniques of discrete time martingale theory;
* apply martingales in proving some important results from classical probability theory;
* recognise and apply martingales in solving a variety of more elementary problems.

Skills:
Numeracy T/F A
Problem Solving T/F A
Written and Spoken Communication F (in tutorials).

Content:
Review of measure theory; fundamental concepts and results. Conditional expectation. Filtrations. Martingales. Stopping times. Optional-Stopping Theorem. Martingale Convergence Theorem. L2 -bounded martingales. Doob decomposition. Angle-brackets process. Lévy's extension of the Borel-Cantelli lemmas. Uniform integrability. UI martingales. Lévy's 'Upward' and 'Downward' Theorems. Kolmogorov 0-1 law. Martingale proof of the Strong Law. Doob's Submartingale Inequality. Law of iterated logarithm. Doob's Lp inequality. Likelihood ratio. Kakutani's theorem. Other applications.
Programme availability:

#### MA40058 is Optional on the following programmes:

Department of Mathematical Sciences
• RSMA-AFM16 : Integrated PhD in Statistical Applied Mathematics
• USMA-AFB15 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences (Year 3)
• USMA-AAB16 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKB16 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• USMA-AFB13 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics (Year 3)
• USMA-AAB14 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKB14 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• USMA-AFM14 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics (Year 3)
• USMA-AFM14 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics (Year 4)
• USMA-AAM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• USMA-AKM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 5)
• USMA-AFB01 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics (Year 3)
• USMA-AAB02 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKB02 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• TSMA-AFM17 : MRes Statistical Applied Mathematics
• TSMA-AFM09 : MSc Mathematical Sciences
• TSMA-APM09 : MSc Mathematical Sciences
• TSMA-AFM08 : MSc Modern Applications of Mathematics
• TSMA-AWM14 : MSc Modern Applications of Mathematics
• TSMA-AFM16 : MSc Statistical Applied Mathematics
• USMA-AFB05 : BSc(Hons) Statistics (Year 3)
• USMA-AAB06 : BSc(Hons) Statistics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKB06 : BSc(Hons) Statistics with Year long work placement (Year 4)

Notes:
* This unit catalogue is applicable for the 2015/16 academic year only. Students continuing their studies into 2016/17 and beyond should not assume that this unit will be available in future years in the format displayed here for 2015/16.
* Programmes and units are subject to change at any time, in accordance with normal University procedures.
* Availability of units will be subject to constraints such as staff availability, minimum and maximum group sizes, and timetabling factors as well as a student's ability to meet any pre-requisite rules.