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AR30453: Engineering risk and uncertainty

Follow this link for further information on academic years Academic Year: 2019/0
Further information on owning departmentsOwning Department/School: Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering
Further information on credits Credits: 6      [equivalent to 12 CATS credits]
Further information on notional study hours Notional Study Hours: 120
Further information on unit levels Level: Honours (FHEQ level 6)
Further information on teaching periods Period:
Semester 2
Further information on unit assessment Assessment Summary: CW 50%, EX 50%
Further information on unit assessment Assessment Detail:
  • Technical report (CW 30%)
  • Examination (EX 70%)
Further information on supplementary assessment Supplementary Assessment:
Like-for-like reassessment (where allowed by programme regulations)
Further information on requisites Requisites: Before taking this module you must take AR20386
Further information on descriptions Description: Aims:
To provide students with knowledge and understanding of how to use probability and statistical methods to analyse civil engineering problems involving geotechnical, hydraulic and structural analysis.

Learning Outcomes:

* Ability to understand and apply basic probability theory for problems involving variability and uncertainty
* Ability to use basic statistical methods for exploratory data analysis, model identification, parameter estimation and decision-making
* Ability to apply both analytical and numerical methods for describing the reliability of infrastructure with examples from geotechnical, structural and hydraulic engineering.
* Gain knowledge of how best to communicate of risk and uncertainty to both lay people and engineering experts.

Skills:
Intellectual skills:
* Understanding probability and statistical concepts and their relevance for civil engineering design
* Understanding of decision-making under uncertainty
Practical skills:
* Use of analytical and numerical methods for analysing civil engineering problems
* Statistical programming and data analysis in R language
Transferable skills
* Quantitative data analysis using statistical techniques
* Communication of risk-related topics

Content:

* Random variables and probability distributions
* Parameter estimation (method of moments, maximum-likelihood)
* Sample theory and hypothesis testing
* Uncertainty analysis: First order analytical method and Monte Carlo methods
* Low probability - high impact events (black swans)
* Decision-making under uncertainty
* Communication of risk
Further information on programme availabilityProgramme availability:

AR30453 is Optional on the following programmes:

Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering
  • UEAR-AFB07 : BEng(Hons) Civil Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKB07 : BEng(Hons) Civil Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • UEAR-AFM03 : MEng(Hons) Civil and Architectural Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKM03 : MEng(Hons) Civil and Architectural Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • UEAR-AFM07 : MEng(Hons) Civil Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKM07 : MEng(Hons) Civil Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)

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