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Programme & Unit Catalogues

## AR30453: Engineering risk and uncertainty

Owning Department/School: Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering
Credits: 6      [equivalent to 12 CATS credits]
Notional Study Hours: 120
Level: Honours (FHEQ level 6)
Period:
Semester 2
Assessment Summary: CW 50%, EX 50%
Assessment Detail:
• Technical report (CW 30%)
• Examination (EX 70%)
Supplementary Assessment:
Like-for-like reassessment (where allowed by programme regulations)
Requisites: Before taking this module you must take AR20386
Description: Aims:
To provide students with knowledge and understanding of how to use probability and statistical methods to analyse civil engineering problems involving geotechnical, hydraulic and structural analysis.

Learning Outcomes:

* Ability to understand and apply basic probability theory for problems involving variability and uncertainty
* Ability to use basic statistical methods for exploratory data analysis, model identification, parameter estimation and decision-making
* Ability to apply both analytical and numerical methods for describing the reliability of infrastructure with examples from geotechnical, structural and hydraulic engineering.
* Gain knowledge of how best to communicate of risk and uncertainty to both lay people and engineering experts.

Skills:
Intellectual skills:
* Understanding probability and statistical concepts and their relevance for civil engineering design
* Understanding of decision-making under uncertainty
Practical skills:
* Use of analytical and numerical methods for analysing civil engineering problems
* Statistical programming and data analysis in R language
Transferable skills
* Quantitative data analysis using statistical techniques
* Communication of risk-related topics

Content:

* Random variables and probability distributions
* Parameter estimation (method of moments, maximum-likelihood)
* Sample theory and hypothesis testing
* Uncertainty analysis: First order analytical method and Monte Carlo methods
* Low probability - high impact events (black swans)
* Decision-making under uncertainty
* Communication of risk
Programme availability:

#### AR30453 is Optional on the following programmes:

Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering
• UEAR-AFB07 : BEng(Hons) Civil Engineering (Year 3)
• UEAR-AKB07 : BEng(Hons) Civil Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• UEAR-AFM03 : MEng(Hons) Civil and Architectural Engineering (Year 3)
• UEAR-AKM03 : MEng(Hons) Civil and Architectural Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• UEAR-AFM07 : MEng(Hons) Civil Engineering (Year 3)
• UEAR-AKM07 : MEng(Hons) Civil Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)

 Notes: This unit catalogue is applicable for the 2019/20 academic year only. Students continuing their studies into 2020/21 and beyond should not assume that this unit will be available in future years in the format displayed here for 2019/20. Programmes and units are subject to change in accordance with normal University procedures. Availability of units will be subject to constraints such as staff availability, minimum and maximum group sizes, and timetabling factors as well as a student's ability to meet any pre-requisite rules. Undergraduates: Find out more about these and other important University terms and conditions here. Postgraduates: Find out more about these and other important University terms and conditions here.