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MA20225: Probability 2B

Follow this link for further information on academic years Academic Year: 2019/0
Further information on owning departmentsOwning Department/School: Department of Mathematical Sciences
Further information on credits Credits: 6      [equivalent to 12 CATS credits]
Further information on notional study hours Notional Study Hours: 120
Further information on unit levels Level: Intermediate (FHEQ level 5)
Further information on teaching periods Period:
Semester 2
Further information on unit assessment Assessment Summary: EX 100%
Further information on unit assessment Assessment Detail:
  • Examination (EX 100%)
Further information on supplementary assessment Supplementary Assessment:
Like-for-like reassessment (where allowed by programme regulations)
Further information on requisites Requisites: Before taking this module you must take MA20224
Further information on descriptions Description: Aims:
To present a formal description of Markov chains and Markov processes, their qualitative properties and ergodic theory. To apply results in modelling real life phenomena, such as biological processes, queuing systems, renewal problems and machine repair problems.

Learning Outcomes:
After taking this unit, students should be able to:
* Classify the states of a Markov chain;
* Find hitting probabilities, expected hitting times and invariant distributions;
* Calculate waiting time distributions, transition probabilities and limiting behaviour of various Markov processes.

Skills:
Numeracy T/F A
Problem Solving T/F A
Written and Spoken Communication F (in tutorials).

Content:
Markov chains with discrete states in discrete time: Examples, including random walks. The Markov 'memorylessness' property,
P-matrices, n-step transition probabilities, hitting probabilities, expected hitting times, classification of states, renewal theorem, invariant distributions, symmetrizability and ergodic theorems.
Markov processes with discrete states in continuous time: Examples, including Poisson processes, birth & death processes and various types of Markovian queues. Q-matrices, waiting time distributions, equilibrium distributions and ergodicity.
Further information on programme availabilityProgramme availability:

MA20225 is Compulsory on the following programmes:

Department of Mathematical Sciences
  • USMA-AFB01 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics (Year 2)
  • USMA-AAB02 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics with Study year abroad (Year 2)
  • USMA-AKB02 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics with Year long work placement (Year 2)
  • USMA-AFB05 : BSc(Hons) Statistics (Year 2)
  • USMA-AAB06 : BSc(Hons) Statistics with Study year abroad (Year 2)
  • USMA-AKB06 : BSc(Hons) Statistics with Year long work placement (Year 2)

MA20225 is Optional on the following programmes:

Department of Economics
  • UHES-AFB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics (Year 2)
  • UHES-AFB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics (Year 3)
  • UHES-AAB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 2)
  • UHES-AAB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
  • UHES-AKB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 2)
  • UHES-AKB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • UHES-ACB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Combined Placement and Study Abroad (Year 2)
  • UHES-ACB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Combined Placement and Study Abroad (Year 4)
Department of Mathematical Sciences
  • USMA-AFB15 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences (Year 2)
  • USMA-AFB15 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences (Year 3)
  • USMA-AAB16 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences with Study year abroad (Year 2)
  • USMA-AAB16 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences with Study year abroad (Year 4)
  • USMA-AKB16 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences with Year long work placement (Year 2)
  • USMA-AKB16 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • USMA-AFB13 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics (Year 2)
  • USMA-AFB13 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics (Year 3)
  • USMA-AAB14 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 2)
  • USMA-AAB14 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
  • USMA-AKB14 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 2)
  • USMA-AKB14 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • USMA-AFM14 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics (Year 2)
  • USMA-AFM14 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics (Year 3)
  • USMA-AAM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 2)
  • USMA-AKM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 2)
  • USMA-AKM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 4)

Notes: