Professor Emeritus Paul Goodwin
BA, MSc, PhD
Professor of Management Science
Key Research Interests:
Forecasting, Decision Support, The role of management judgment in forecasting and decision making
Accurate forecasts of sales are crucial to most companies. To produce their forecasts many companies use a combination of statistical methods and management judgment. Ideally, these methods should complement each other, but research has shown that management judgment is often subject to biases, is used inconsistently and is often applied when it is not appropriate.
My research is aimed at designing forecasting software that will provide support to managers in their use of judgment so that these problems are reduced and greater forecast accuracy can be achieved. Why do managers frequently adjust or replace the forecasts of reliable statistical methods? How can managers be encouraged to refrain from making judgmental interventions when these are likely to reduce accuracy? When the use of judgment is appropriate, how can managers be supported in making their judgments? The second theme of my research is a broad theme which includes providing support to managers facing decisions involving multiple objectives and integrating scenario planning with multiattribute decision methods.
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Leading Refereed Journal Papers
Petropoulos, F., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R. Forthcoming. Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge. International Journal of Forecasting.
Önkal, D., Gönül, S., Goodwin, P., Thompson, M. & Öz. Forthcoming. Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users’ reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility. International Journal of Forecasting.
Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H. 2015. Corrigendum to Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts. Annals of Tourism Research, 55: 194, DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2015.09.010.
Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P. 2015. Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour. European Journal of Operational Research, DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.002.
Goodwin, P. & Meeran, S. 2012. Robust Testing of the Utility-Based High-Technology product sales forecasting models proposed by Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa (2010). Journal of Product Innovation Management , DOI: 10.1111/j/1540-5885.2012.00966.x.
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Stephens, G. 2011. Restrictiveness and Guidance in Support Systems. Omega, International Journal of Management Science , 39(3): 242-253, DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2010.07.001.
Kreye, M. N., Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L. M. & Goodwin, P. 2011. Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty. Omega, International Journal of Management Science, 40(6): 682-692, DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2011.05.010.
Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. 2010. The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(3): 355-368, DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.10.008.
Goodwin, P., Önkal, D. & Thomson, M. 2010. Do forecasts expressed as prediction Intervals improve production planning decisions? European Journal of Operational Research, 205(1): 195-201, DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2009.12.020.
Önkal, D., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M., Gönül, M. S. & Pollock, A. 2009.The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments. Journal of Behavioural Decision Making, 22(4): 390-409, DOI:10.1002/bdm.637.
Wright, G. & Goodwin, P. 2009. Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method. International Journal of Forecasting, 25(4): 813-825, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019.
Goodwin, P. 2009. Common sense and hard decision analysis. Why might they conflict? Management Decision, 47(3): 427-440, DOI: 10.1108/00251740910946697.
Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K. 2008. Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning. International Journal of Forecasting, 25(1): 3-23, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.11.010.
Gönül, M. S., Önkal, D. & Goodwin, P. 2008. Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation. Journal of Forecasting, 28(1): 19-37, DOI: 10.1002/for.1082.
Syntetos, A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P. 2008. The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts. International Journal of Production Economics, 118(1): 72-81, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011.
Wright, G., Cairns, G. & Goodwin, P. 2008. Teaching scenario planning: lessons from practice in academe and business. European Journal of Operational Research, 194(1): 323-335, DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2007.12.003.
Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P. 2007. Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting. Interfaces, 37(6): 570-576, DOI: 10.1287/inte.1070.0309.
Goodwin, P. 2007. The ombudsman: forecasting conflict resolution. Is it worth asking an expert? Interfaces, 37(3): 285-286, DOI: 10.1287/inte.1060.0261.
Goodwin, P. 2007. Should we be using significance tests in forecasting research? International Journal of Forecasting, 23(2): 333-334, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.01.008.
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K. 2007. The process of using a forecasting support system. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3): 391-404, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.016.
Lee, W. Y., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. & Lawrence, M. 2007. Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3): 377-390, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.02.006.
Nikolopoulos, K., Goodwin, P., Patelis, A. & Assimakopoulos, V. 2007. Forecasting with cue information: a comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches. European Journal of Operational Research, 180(1): 354-368, DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2006.03.047.
Parackal, M., Goodwin, P. & O'Connor, M. 2007. Judgement in forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, (Editorial), 23(3): 343-345, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.004.
Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Lawrence, M. 2006. The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness. Decision Support Systems, 42(1): 351-361, DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2005.01.003.
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., O'Connor, M. & Onkal, D. 2006. Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3): 493-518, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.007.
Goodwin, P. 2005. How to integrate management judgment with statistical forecasts. Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 1: 8-12.
Goodwin, P. 2005. Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions for asymmetric loss. European Journal of Operational Research, 163(2): 388-402, DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2003.10.039.
Goodwin, P., Onkal-Atay, D., Thomson, M. E., Pollock, A. E. & Macaulay, A. 2004. Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting. Decision Support Systems, 37(1): 175-186, DOI: 10.1016/S0167-9236(03)00002-2.
Thomson, M. E., Onkal-Atay, D., Avcioglu, A. & Goodwin, P. 2004. Aviation risk perception: a comparison between experts and novices. Risk Analysis, 24(6): 1585-1595, DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00552.x.
Goodwin, P. & Lawton, R. 2003. Debiasing forecasts: how useful is the unbiasedness test? International Journal of Forecasting, 19(3): 467-475, DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00059-6.
Goodwin, P. 2002. Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts. Omega, International Journal of Management Science, 30(2): 127-135, DOI: 10.1016/S0305-0483(01)00062-7.
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R. 2002. Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy. Omega, International Journal of Management Science, 30(5): 381-392, DOI: 10.1016/S0305-0483(02)00048-8.
Wright, G. & Goodwin, P. 2002. Eliminating a framing bias by using simple instructions to think harder and respondents with managerial experience. Comment on Breaking the Frame. Strategic Management Journal, 23(11): 1059-1067, DOI: 10.1002/smj.265.
Goodwin, P. 2002 Forecasting games: can game theory win? International Journal of Forecasting, 18(3): 369-374, DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00022-5.
Roberts, R. & Goodwin, P. 2002. Weight approximations in multi-attribute decision models. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 11(6): 291-303, DOI: 10.1002/mcda.320.
Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. 2001. Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning: a role for decision analysis. Journal of Management Studies, 38(1): 1-16, DOI: 10.1111/1467-6486.00225.
Goodwin, P, & Wright, G. 2009. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. (4th ed.0 Chichester: Wiley.
Wright, G., & Goodwin, P. 2007. Structuring the decision process: an evaluation of methods. In W. Starbuck, & G. Hodgkinson (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of organizational decision making. Oxford: Oxford University Press.