Professor Goodwin gives live webcast on Better Management website
The talk entitled Suspend Your Judgement! Eight Reasons to Trust Statistical Forecasting was broadcast live at 3pm and lasted for 45 minutes with a 15 minute Q&A session.
It discussed how short and medium-term forecasts of sales and other variables can play a crucial role in decisions relating to logistics, production planning, human resources, inventory control and financial planning. Surveys show that management judgment often plays a predominant role in the production of these forecasts. Statistical forecasts produced by computer systems are often replaced by judgmental forecasts because they conflict with managers 'gut-feel'.
Professor Goodwin used the results of a major research project carried out in supply-chain companies to show that these judgmental interventions are often made inappropriately and can lead to reductions in forecast accuracy. He helps participants to distinguish between situations where judgment is likely to be detrimental to accuracy and situations where it may be beneficial. Paul also demonstrates simple methods for integrating judgment and statistical methods.
The webcast has been recorded and will be available to download shortly on the bettermanagement.com website.
Notes for Editors
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