Department of Mathematical Sciences
Gavin Shaddick


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Dept of Mathematical Sciences


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Gavin Shaddick


My research interests are primarily concerned with Bayesian methods and spatial-temporal modelling. These have been applied in a variety of settings, including spatial epidemiology, health risk analysis and environmental modelling. Publications have included development of methods for estimating personal exposures to environmental hazards, detecting increased risk around putative point sources of pollution, incorporating spatial modelling into studies of both short and long-term effects of pollution on health and the effects of ecological bias in health-exposure modelling. I am a member of the Bath Institute for Rheumatic Diseases research team and have extensive experience of design and analysis of large data sets in applied health research. I am also actively involved in a number of substantive epidemiological enquiries including the possible effects of overhead powerlines on health and in relating air pollution to health and in the development of methodology to utilize information from multiple sources.


Tansley, S. L., Simou, S., Shaddick, G., Betteridge, Z. E., Almeida, B., Gunawardena, H., Thomson, W., Beresford, M. W., Midgley, A., Muntoni, F., Wedderburn, L. R. and McHugh, N. J., 2017. Autoantibodies in juvenile-onset myositis:Their diagnostic value and associated clinical phenotype in a large UK cohort. Journal of Autoimmunity

Hamann, P., Holland, R., Hyrich, K., Pauling, J. D., Shaddick, G., Nightingale, A. and McHugh, N., 2017. Factors associated with sustained remission in rheumatoid arthritis in patients treated with anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF). Arthritis Care and Research, 69 (6), pp. 783-793.

Cohen, A. J., Brauer, M., Burnett, R., Anderson, H. R., Frostad, J., Estep, K., Balakrishnan, K., Brunekreef, B., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Feigin, V., Freedman, G., Hubbell, B., Jobling, A., Kan, H., Knibbs, L., Liu, Y., Martin, R., Morawska, L., Pope, C. A., Shin, H., Straif, K., Shaddick, G., Thomas, M., van Dingenen, R., van Donkelaar, A., Vos, T., Murray, C. J.L. and Forouzanfar, M. H., 2017. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution:an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015. Lancet, 389 (10082), pp. 1907-1918.

Tillett, W., Shaddick, G., Jobling, A., Askari, A., Cooper, A., Creamer, P., Clunie, G., Helliwell, P. S., James, J., Kay, L., Korendowych, E., Lane, S., Packham, J., Shaban, R., Thomas, M. L., Williamson, L. and McHugh, N., 2017. Effect of anti-TNF and conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment on work disability and clinical outcome in a multicentre observational cohort study of psoriatic arthritis. Rheumatology, 56 (4), pp. 603-612.

Williams, S., Trewartha, G., Kemp, S., Brooks, J. H. M., Fuller, C. W., Taylor, A. E., Cross, M., Shaddick, G. and Stokes, K., 2017. How much rugby is too much? A seven-season prospective cohort study of match exposure and injury risk in professional Rugby Union players. Sports Medicine

Williams, S., Trewartha, G., Kemp, S., Brooks, J., Fuller, C. W., Taylor, A., Cross, M., Shaddick, G. and Stokes, K., 2017. How much rugby is too much? A seven-season prospective cohort study of match exposure and injury risk in professional Rugby Union players. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 51, 410.

Jadon, D. R., Sengupta, R., Nightingale, A., Lindsay, M., Korendowych, E., Robinson, G., Jobling, A., Shaddick, G., Bi, J., Winchester, R., Giles, J. T. and McHugh, N. J., 2016. Axial Disease in Psoriatic Arthritis study:defining the clinical and radiographic phenotype of psoriatic spondyloarthritis. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases

Betteridge, Z. E., Woodhead, F., Lu, H., Shaddick, G., Bunn, C. C., Denton, C. P., Abraham, D. J., du Bois, R. M., Lewis, M., Wells, A. U. and McHugh, N. J., 2016. anti-eukaryotic initiation factor 2B autoantibodies are associated with interstitial lung disease in patients with systemic sclerosis. Arthritis & Rheumatology, 68 (11), pp. 2778-2783.

Tansley, S., Shaddick, G., Christopher-Stine, L., Sharp, C., Dourmishev, L., Maurer, B., Chinoy, H. and McHugh, N., 2016. Developing standardised treatment for adults with myositis and different phenotypes:an international survey of current prescribing preferences. Clinical and Experimental Rheumatology, 34 (5), pp. 880-884.

Morrison, K. T., Shaddick, G., Henderson, S. B. and Buckeridge, D. L., 2016. A latent process model for forecasting multiple time series in environmental public health surveillance. Statistics in Medicine, 35 (18), pp. 3085-3100.

Shaddick, G., Zidek, J. V. and Liu, Y., 2016. Mitigating the effects of preferentially selected monitoring sites for environmental policy and health risk analysis. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 18, pp. 44-52.

Gabe-Thomas, E., Walker, I., Verplanken, B. and Shaddick, G., 2016. Householders' mental models of domestic energy consumption:using a sort-and-cluster method to identify shared concepts of appliance similarity. PLoS ONE, 11 (7), e0158949.

Wood, S. N., Li, Z., Shaddick, G. and Augustin, N. H., 2016. Generalized additive models for gigadata:modelling the UK black smoke network daily data. Journal of the American Statistical Association

Liu, Y., Shaddick, G. and Zidek, J. V., 2016. Incorporating high-dimensional exposure modelling into studies of air pollution and health. Statistics in Biosciences

Tillett, W., Shaddick, G., Jadon, D., Robinson, G., Korendowych, E. and McHugh, N., 2016. Novel Composite Radiographic Score for Longitudinal Observational Studies of Psoriatic Arthritis:A Proof-of-concept Study. The Journal of Rheumatology

Brauer, M., Freedman, G., Frostad, J., Van Donkelaar, A., Martin, R. V., Dentener, F., Dingenen, R. V., Estep, K., Amini, H., Apte, J. S., Balakrishnan, K., Barregard, L., Broday, D., Feigin, V., Ghosh, S., Hopke, P. K., Knibbs, L. D., Kokubo, Y., Liu, Y., Ma, S., Morawska, L., Sangrador, J. L. T., Shaddick, G., Anderson, H. R., Vos, T., Forouzanfar, M. H., Burnett, R. T. and Cohen, A., 2016. Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the global burden of disease 2013. Environmental Science and Technology, 50 (1), pp. 79-88.

Li, R., Gu, C., Li, F., Shaddick, G. and Dale, M., 2015. Development of Low Voltage__ Network Template Part I- Load Profile Clustering and Substation Classification:substation clustering and classification. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 30 (6), 6981990.

Li, R., Gu, C., Li, F., Shaddick, G. and Dale, M., 2015. Development of low voltage network templates - Part II peak load estimation by clusterwise regression:peak load estimation by clusterwise regression. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 30 (6), 6981996.

Shaddick, G. and Zidek, J. V., 2015. Spatio-Temporal Methods in Environmental Epidemiology. Chapman Hall/CRC.

Jadon, D. R., Shaddick, G., Tillett, W., Korendowych, E., Robinson, G., Waldron, N., Cavill, C. and McHugh, N. J., 2015. Psoriatic Arthritis Mutilans:Characteristics and Natural Radiographic History. The Journal of Rheumatology

Jadon, D. R., Shaddick, G., Jobling, A., Ramanan, A. V. and Sengupta, R., 2015. Clinical outcomes and progression to orthopedic surgery in juvenile- versus adult-onset ankylosing spondylitis. Arthritis Care and Research, 67 (5), pp. 651-657.

Tillett, W., Shaddick, G., Askari, A., Cooper, A., Creamer, P., Clunie, G., Helliwell, P. S., Kay, L., Korendowych, E., Lane, S., Packham, J., Shaban, R., Williamson, L. and McHugh, N., 2015. Factors influencing work disability in psoriatic arthritis:first results from a large UK multicentre study. Rheumatology, 54 (1), pp. 157-162.

Tansley, S. L., Betteridge, Z. E., Shaddick, G., Gunawardena, H., Arnold, K., Wedderburn, L. R., McHugh, N. J. and , o. b. o. t. J. D. R. G., 2014. Calcinosis in juvenile dermatomyositis is influenced by both anti-NXP2 autoantibody status and age at disease onset. Rheumatology, 53 (12), pp. 2204-2208.

Shaddick, G. and Zidek, J., 2014. A case study in preferential sampling: Long term monitoring of air pollution in the UK. Spatial Statistics, 9, 51 - 65.

Tillett, W., Jadon, D., Shaddick, G., Robinson, G., Sengupta, R., Korendowych, E., De Vries, C.S. and McHugh, N.J., 2014. Feasibility, reliability, and sensitivity to change of four radiographic scoring methods in patients with psoriatic arthritis. Arthritis Care and Research, 66 (2), pp. 311-317.

Zidek, J. V., Shaddick, G. and Taylor, C. G., 2014. Reducing estimation bias in adaptively changing monitoring networks with preferential site selection. Annals of Applied Statistics, 8 (3), pp. 1640-1670.

Shaddick, G., Yan, H. and Vienneau, D., 2013. A Bayesian hierarchical model for assessing the impact of human activity on nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Europe. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 20 (4), pp. 553-570.

Roberts, S. P., Trewartha, G., England, M., Shaddick, G. and Stokes, K. A., 2013. Epidemiology of time-loss injuries in English community-level rugby union. BMJ Open, 3 (11), e003998.

Strickland, G., Pauling, J., Cavill, C., Shaddick, G. and McHugh, N., 2013. Mortality in systemic sclerosis-a single centre study from the UK. Clinical Rheumatology, 32 (10), pp. 1533-1539.

Tillett, W., Jadon, D., Shaddick, G., Cavill, C., Korendowych, E., De Vries, C. S. and McHugh, N., 2013. Smoking and delay to diagnosis are associated with poorer functional outcome in psoriatic arthritis. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases, 72 (8), pp. 1358-1361.

Shaddick, G., Lee, D. and Wakefield, J., 2013. Ecological bias in studies of the short–term effects of air pollution on health. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 22, pp. 65-74.

Zhang, Y., Li, F., Hu, Z. and Shaddick, G., 2013. Quantification of low voltage network reinforcement costs:A statistical approach. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 28 (2), 6299007.

Shaddick, G., Yan, H., Salway, R., Vienneau, D., Kounali, D. and Briggs, D., 2013. Large-scale Bayesian spatial modelling of air pollution for policy support. Journal of Applied Statistics, 40 (4), pp. 777-794.

Elliott, P., Shaddick, G., Douglass, M., De Hoogh, K., Briggs, D.J. and Toledano, M.B., 2013. Adult cancers near high-voltage overhead power lines. Epidemiology, 24 (2), pp. 184-190.

Fantke, P., Friedrich, R., Wieland, P., Juraske, R., Shaddick, G., Itoiz, E.S. and Jolliet, O., 2012. Parameterization models for pesticide exposure via crop consumption. Environmental Science & Technology, 46 (23), pp. 12864-12872.

Ward, H., Toledano, M. B., Shaddick, G., Davies, B. and Elliott, P., 2012. Oxford Handbook of Epidemiology for Clinicians. Oxford University Press.

Bornn, L., Shaddick, G. and Zidek, J. V., 2012. Modeling non-stationary processes through dimension expansion. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 107 (497), pp. 281-289.

Tillett, W., Shaddick, G., Korendowych, E., De Vries, C. S. and McHugh, N., 2012. Joint count reliability in psoriatic arthritis observational trials: an unreported problem. Rheumatology, 51 (7), pp. 1333-1334.

Sabel, C., Shaddick, G., Blangiardo, M., Salway, R., Zenie, A., Denby, B. and Gerharz, L., 2011. Uncertainty analysis within the EU HEIMTSA (Health and Environment Integrated Methodology and Toolbox for Scenario Assessment) project. Epidemiology, 22 (1), S176-S177.

Lee, D. and Shaddick, G., 2010. Spatial modeling of air pollution in studies of its short-term health effects. Biometrics, 66 (4), pp. 1238-1246.

Salway, R., Lee, D., Shaddick, G. and Walker, S., 2010. Bayesian latent variable modelling in studies of air pollution and health. Statistics in Medicine, 29 (26), pp. 2732-2742.

Shaddick, G., Lee, D., Zidek, J. V. and Salway, R., 2008. Estimating exposure response functions using ambient pollution concentrations. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2 (4), pp. 1249-1270.

Lee, D. and Shaddick, G., 2008. Modelling the effects of air pollution on health using Bayesian dynamic generalised linear models. Environmetrics, 19 (8), pp. 785-804.

This list was generated on Tue Sep 19 13:14:26 2017 IST.

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