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## ES10091: Core skills for economists: introduction to probability and statistics

Owning Department/School: Department of Economics
Credits: 6
Level: Certificate (FHEQ level 4)
Period: Semester 1
Assessment Summary: EX 70%, OT 30%
Assessment Detail:
• Examination (EX 70% - Qualifying Mark: 35)
• Test (OT 30%)
Supplementary Assessment: Reassessment exam (where allowed by programme regulations)
Requisites:
Description: Aims:
Basic statistical knowledge is fundamental to any understanding of applied economic topics (i.e. testing of micro and macro models). The aim, in this respect, is to give students the necessary background for the second semester unit ES10004 Statistics and Data Analysis and second year Introduction to Econometrics. More specifically, the unit aims to provide students with the theoretical foundations to understand the tools of data analysis and the techniques of probability and statistical inference.

Learning Outcomes:
Students should be able to:
* Calculate univariate and multivariate probabilities using a variety of discrete and continuous distributions;
* Understand principles of random sampling and construction of sampling distributions;
* Understand the principles of parameter estimation.

Skills:
Statistical skills; problem-solving.

Content:
PART I: PROBABILITY
1. Probability Theory
Random experiments, outcomes and events. The nature of probability. Probability rules. Permutations and combinations. Bayes¿ theorem.
2. Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Random variables. Probability distributions for discrete random variables.
3. Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Continuous random variables. Expectations. The Normal distribution.
4. Jointly distributed random variables
Bivariate probabilities. Conditional moments. Conditional moment functions
Jointly distributed continuous random variables.
PART II: STATISTICAL INFERENCE
4. Sampling and Sampling Distributions
Sampling from a population. Sampling distribution of the sampling mean, sample proportion, and sample variance.
5. Estimation
Point estimators.
Key text:
* Statistics for Business and Economics (6th Ed) Newbold, Carlson and Thorne (Prentice Hall 2003).
Programme availability:

#### ES10091 is Compulsory on the following programmes:

Department of Economics
• UHES-AFB03 : BSc(Hons) Economics (Year 1)
• UHES-AKB03 : BSc(Hons) Economics with Year long work placement (Year 1)
• UHES-AFB01 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Politics (Year 1)
• UHES-AKB01 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Politics with Year long work placement (Year 1)

Notes:
* This unit catalogue is applicable for the 2014/15 academic year only. Students continuing their studies into 2015/16 and beyond should not assume that this unit will be available in future years in the format displayed here for 2014/15.
* Programmes and units are subject to change at any time, in accordance with normal University procedures.
* Availability of units will be subject to constraints such as staff availability, minimum and maximum group sizes, and timetabling factors as well as a student's ability to meet any pre-requisite rules.