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University of Bath

Modelling the impacts of tax reform in London

Working with the Institute for Policy Research, we have modelled the effects of tax reforms in the capital.

Graphic image of the City of London
The reports estimate potential Land Value Tax revenue in London and predict Stamp Duty Land Tax over the next five years.

Both reports, published by the Institute for Policy Research (IPR), are written by IMI's Commercial Research Associate Dr Catherine Barnaby and IPR Director Professor Nick Pearce.

Estimation of Land Value Tax Revenues

The first report examines the possible revenues that might be generated in the capital by introducing a Land Value Tax (LVT). Estimates of potential LVT are provided for the entire city and each London borough.

These estimates are then compared to the revenue generated from the current domestic tax regime of Council Tax and residential Stamp Duty Land Tax, as well as the non-domestic tax revenues generated from the National Non-Domestic Rates and the non-residential Stamp Duty Land Tax.

Read the full report.

London Stamp Duty Receipts

The second report aims to predict the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) receivable in London over the next five years, following the 2014 reform of how the tax is calculated.

SDLT revenue will depend on the value of individual properties changing ownership, but also on the overall performance of the housing market. The model of future SDLT receipts therefore includes a range of possible scenarios.

Read the full report.