Aims & Learning Objectives:
This unit is designed primarily for DBA Final Year students who have taken the First and Second Year management statistics units.
Well qualified students from the IMML course would also be considered.
It introduces three statistical topics which are particularly relevant to Management Science, namely quality control, forecasting and decision theory.
Aims: To introduce some statistical topics which are particularly relevant to Management Science.
Objectives:
On completing the unit, students should be able to implement some quality control procedures, and some univariate forecasting procedures. They should also understand the ideas of decision theory.
Content:
Quality Control: Acceptance sampling, single and double schemes, SPRT applied to sequential scheme. Process control, Shewhart charts for mean and range, operating characteristics, ideas of cusum charts.
Practical forecasting. Time plot. Trend-and-seasonal models. Exponential smoothing. Holt's linear trend model and Holt-Winters seasonal forecasting. Autoregressive models. Box-Jenkins ARIMA forecasting.
Introduction to decision analysis for discrete events: Revision of Bayes' Theorem, admissability, Bayes' decisions, minimax. Decision trees, expected value of perfect information. Utility, subjective probability and its measurement.
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