School of Management, Unit Catalogue 2007/08 |
MN20023 Business forecasting |
| Credits: 6 |
| Level: Intermediate |
| Semester: 1 |
| Assessment: CW 40%, EX 60% |
| Requisites: |
| Before taking this unit you must take MA20096 or take EC10004 or take EC10130 |
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Students on degree programmes run by the Department of Economics & International Development must take EC20019 whilst taking this unit.
Aims: Almost all organisations use forecasts as necessary ingredients for decision making. The main objective of this course is to introduce students to the various forecasting techniques most commonly used in a business context and methods by which these techniques can be evaluated.
Learning Outcomes: At the end of the course students will be able to: * understand the role of forecasting in organisations; * identify appropriate forecasting methods for particular problems; * apply, and evaluate the performance of, these forecasting methods; * evaluate the role of management judgment in forecasting processes and apply methods to improve its effectiveness. Skills: Key * an openness and capacity to continue learning with the ability to reflect on earlier knowledge and practice and integrate the new with past experience and effectively apply it to the present situations. F Intellectual * evaluate forecasting processes and methods T, A Practical * use information technology effectively for applying forecasting methods T,A Professional * deal with complex issues and make sound judgements in the absence of complete information, and to communicate their conclusions clearly and competently to a range of audiences. F Content: * The role of forecasting in organisations, * Stages in the forecasting task * Measuring bias and accuracy * Time series analysis * Univariate methods, including exponential smoothing, Holt's and the Holt Winter's method; * Explanatory methods: bivariate and multiple regression; * The role of management judgment in forecasting: heuristics, biases and improvement strategies, The Delphi method. |