Academics from the Bath Institute of Sustainability and Climate Change (ISCC) are examining the newly announced Warm Homes Plan with interest, particularly its ambition to upgrade up to five million homes by 2030 and lift one million families out of fuel poverty.

While the scale of the investment is welcomed, researchers emphasise that its long term sustainability will depend on factors beyond household upgrades alone - including supply chains, domestic industry capacity and the skills needed to deliver the work.

Sustainability

Questions about the carbon footprint of Chinese-manufactured solar panels and heat pumps have prompted debate about how ‘green’ these technologies truly are.

However, Professor Marcelle McManus, Sustainable Energy Systems Research Centre and Institute for Sustainability and Climate Change, said: “Whilst that is a concern, China is one of the fastest growing renewable economies. While there is embodied carbon in the supply chain and production, this will reduce.”

Professor Jenny Baker, Professor of Industrial Decarbonisation in the Institute for Sustainability and Climate Change, said: “Although some coal is used to make photovoltaic panels from China, life cycle assessments consistently show that solar energy in the UK has significantly lower emissions than gas produced electricity.

'Moreover, it is important to recognise that not all the equipment needed would be manufactured abroad. A third of heat pumps installed in the UK are UK manufactured for example, and the new Warm Homes Plan details increasing UK manufactured heat pumps to 70% by 2035.'

"The plan is a positive step to ensure that more people can benefit from these technologies that reduce the reliance on externally imported gas, improving resilience alongside a reduction in carbon emissions.”

UK energy dependence

Another concern is whether the rapid scale up of renewables risks replacing one form of dependency with another - shifting the UK from reliance on Russian gas to reliance on Chinese-manufactured clean energy technologies.

However Senior Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering and ISCC member Dr Rick Lupton feels this worry is unwarranted. He said: “It’s not a major problem in the short-term, because it’s about one-time installation of equipment. If we couldn’t get new heat pumps, we would not be particularly worse off than we are now – we would just have more people continuing to use gas boilers.”

“This is different from the current dependence on fossil fuels from overseas when, if supply is disrupted or costs go up, everyone suffers immediately.”

Social impact

Research undertaken by ISCC Professor Lorraine Whitmarsh Professor of Environmental Psychology, and Dr Sam Hampton, Institute of Sustainability and Climate Change Research Fellow demonstrates a willingness in the UK to make good, low-carbon choices and the new Warm Homes plan goes some way in addressing some of the real-world obstacles people face. It offers positive steps, helping individuals and families by making clean energy options more affordable and accessible.

Dr Sam Hampton said, “I welcome the support for solar and batteries, but this also indicates a shift away from efficiency as a top priority. We still have a long way to go with efficiency upgrades and retrofitting homes in the UK.”

'I fear the government has been scared off by the recent National Audit criticism of the Energy Company Obligation for several failures, but perfect is the enemy of the good and we must keep insulating our homes to reduce use of gas and exposure to volatile gas price.

Industry

Beyond immediate emissions savings, Institute researchers are highlighting the importance of developing domestic capability - both to reduce reliance on imports and to ensure the UK benefits economically from the transition.

Professor Jenny Baker says: “Whilst we don’t make silicon solar panels in the UK, we have significant solar glass manufacturing in the UK – so we need to make sure that this is supported.”

Professor Baker also points out:

'The UK is leading research in new solar technologies - such as perovskites which, particularly when used on top of traditional silicon creating ‘tandem solar cells,’ can make them more efficient. The question will be, will we support this to become a key part of manufacturing in the UK in the future?'

Longer-term sustainability

“A longer-term issue are the materials involved, which can and should be recycled.” says Professor McManus. “We need to create proper recycling schemes and technologies that can be disassembled and re-manufactured to create a more circular economy. We can do it, and we should.”

Professor McManus is keen that progress continues to be made with reducing gas boilers in the UK. She said: “I am sad to see a lack of movement in this plan on reducing gas boilers. We must be bolder with new builds and how we heat them.”

'While more efficient houses may be slightly more costly at the building stage, this doesn't take into account factors like the lifetime running costs or fuel poverty. If houses are built with more efficient heating and insulation as standard, we would become more efficient on all levels.'

The ISCC’s welcomes the Warm Homes Plan, which certainly has the potential to make a meaningful difference. However, to fully realise that potential, it must be paired with wider action on supply chains, recycling, housing standards and the UK’s long-term energy strategy.

About the Institute

The Institute of Sustainability and Climate Change at the University of Bath is an interdisciplinary community of researchers delivering world-class research in sustainability that pushes boundaries among disciplines.

The Institute solves challenges using a wide-angle, whole-systems approach, complemented by a depth of scientific understanding, and build partnerships with industry and institutions that focus on finding solutions to real-world problems.

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