## MA30085: Time series

[Page last updated: 23 October 2023]

Owning Department/School: Department of Mathematical Sciences
Credits: 6 [equivalent to 12 CATS credits]
Notional Study Hours: 120
Level: Honours (FHEQ level 6)
Period:
Semester 2
Assessment Summary: CW 25%, EX 75%
Assessment Detail:
• Coursework (CW 25%)
• Ma30085 Examination (EX 75%)
Supplementary Assessment:
Like-for-like reassessment (where allowed by programme regulations)
Requisites: Before taking this module you must take MA20227
Learning Outcomes: At the end of the course, the student should be able to:
* compute and interpret a correlogram and a sample spectrum;
* derive the properties of ARIMA and state-space models;
* choose an appropriate ARIMA model for a given set of data and fit the model using R;
* compute forecasts for a variety of linear methods and models.

Aims: To introduce a variety of statistical models for time series, cover the main methods for analysis and give practical experience in fitting such models.

Skills: Numeracy T/F A
Problem Solving T/F A
Written and Spoken Communication F

Content: Introduction: Examples, simple descriptive techniques, trend, seasonality, the correlogram.
Probability models for time series: Stationarity; moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), ARMA and ARIMA models.
Estimating the autocorrelation function and fitting ARIMA models.
Forecasting: Exponential smoothing, Forecasting from ARIMA models.
Stationary processes in the frequency domain: The spectral density function, the periodogram, spectral analysis.
State-space models: Dynamic linear models and the Kalman filter.

Course availability:

#### MA30085 is Optional on the following courses:

Department of Economics
• UHES-AFB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics (Year 3)
• UHES-AAB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• UHES-AKB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• UHES-ACB04 : BSc(Hons) Economics and Mathematics with Combined Placement and Study Abroad (Year 4)
Department of Mathematical Sciences
• USMA-AFB15 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences (Year 3)
• USMA-AAB16 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKB16 : BSc(Hons) Mathematical Sciences with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• USMA-AFB13 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics (Year 3)
• USMA-AAB14 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKB14 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• USMA-AFB01 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics (Year 3)
• USMA-AAB02 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKB02 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics and Statistics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• USMA-AFB20 : BSc(Hons) Mathematics, Statistics, and Data Science (Year 3)
• USMA-AAB06 : BSc(Hons) Statistics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKB06 : BSc(Hons) Statistics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• USMA-AFM14 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics (Year 3)
• USMA-AFM14 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics (Year 4)
• USMA-AAM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Study year abroad (Year 4)
• USMA-AKM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 4)
• USMA-AKM15 : MMath(Hons) Mathematics with Year long work placement (Year 5)

 Notes: This unit catalogue is applicable for the 2023/24 academic year only. Students continuing their studies into 2024/25 and beyond should not assume that this unit will be available in future years in the format displayed here for 2023/24. Courses and units are subject to change in accordance with normal University procedures. Availability of units will be subject to constraints such as staff availability, minimum and maximum group sizes, and timetabling factors as well as a student's ability to meet any pre-requisite rules. Find out more about these and other important University terms and conditions here.