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## MA20225: Probability 2B

Credits: 6
Level: Intermediate (FHEQ level 5)
Period: Semester 2
Assessment: EX 100%
Supplementary Assessment: MA20225 Mandatory extra work (where allowed by programme regulations)
Requisites: Before taking this unit you must take MA20224
Description: Aims:
To present a formal description of Markov chains and Markov processes, their qualitative properties and ergodic theory. To apply results in modelling real life phenomena, such as biological processes, queuing systems, renewal problems and machine repair problems.

Learning Outcomes:
After taking this unit, students should be able to:
* Classify the states of a Markov chain;
* Find hitting probabilities, expected hitting times and invariant distributions;
* Calculate waiting time distributions, transition probabilities and limiting behaviour of various Markov processes.

Skills:
Numeracy T/F A
Problem Solving T/F A
Written and Spoken Communication F (in tutorials).

Content:
Markov chains with discrete states in discrete time: Examples, including random walks. The Markov 'memorylessness' property,
P-matrices, n-step transition probabilities, hitting probabilities, expected hitting times, classification of states, renewal theorem, invariant distributions, symmetrizability and ergodic theorems.
Markov processes with discrete states in continuous time: Examples, including Poisson processes, birth & death processes and various types of Markovian queues. Q-matrices, waiting time distributions, equilibrium distributions and ergodicity.
Programme availability:

#### MA20225 is Compulsory on the following programmes:

Department of Mathematical Sciences
• USMA-AFB01 : BSc (hons) Mathematics and Statistics (Full-time) - Year 2
• USMA-AKB02 : BSc (hons) Mathematics and Statistics (Full-time with Thick Sandwich Placement) - Year 2
• USMA-AAB02 : BSc (hons) Mathematics and Statistics with Study Year Abroad (Full-time with Study Year Abroad) - Year 2
• USMA-AFB05 : BSc (hons) Statistics (Full-time) - Year 2
• USMA-AKB06 : BSc (hons) Statistics (Full-time with Thick Sandwich Placement) - Year 2
• USMA-AAB06 : BSc (hons) Statistics with Study Year Abroad (Full-time with Study Year Abroad) - Year 2

#### MA20225 is Optional on the following programmes:

Department of Mathematical Sciences
• USMA-AFB15 : BSc (hons) Mathematical Sciences (Full-time) - Year 2
• USMA-AFB15 : BSc (hons) Mathematical Sciences (Full-time) - Year 3
• USMA-AKB16 : BSc (hons) Mathematical Sciences (Full-time with Thick Sandwich Placement) - Year 2
• USMA-AKB16 : BSc (hons) Mathematical Sciences (Full-time with Thick Sandwich Placement) - Year 4
• USMA-AAB16 : BSc (hons) Mathematical Sciences with Study Year Abroad (Full-time with Study Year Abroad) - Year 2
• USMA-AAB16 : BSc (hons) Mathematical Sciences with Study Year Abroad (Full-time with Study Year Abroad) - Year 4
• USMA-AFB13 : BSc (hons) Mathematics (Full-time) - Year 2
• USMA-AFB13 : BSc (hons) Mathematics (Full-time) - Year 3
• USMA-AKB14 : BSc (hons) Mathematics (Full-time with Thick Sandwich Placement) - Year 2
• USMA-AKB14 : BSc (hons) Mathematics (Full-time with Thick Sandwich Placement) - Year 4
• USMA-AAB14 : BSc (hons) Mathematics with Study Year Abroad (Full-time with Study Year Abroad) - Year 2
• USMA-AAB14 : BSc (hons) Mathematics with Study Year Abroad (Full-time with Study Year Abroad) - Year 4
• USMA-AFM14 : MMath Mathematics (Full-time) - Year 2
• USMA-AAM15 : MMath Mathematics with Study Year Abroad (Full-time with Study Year Abroad) - Year 2

NB. Programmes and units are subject to change at any time, in accordance with normal University procedures.