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Modelling population dynamics

We are developing a mathematical model to capture population changes over time to support care service commissioning decisions by integrated care systems

Project status

In progress


Project started on 1 Mar 2021

Healthcare policy makers are constantly facing challenges on how to allocate properly healthcare resources with limited budget. Hence, they have an increased need for long-term detailed projections that take into account uncertainty and illustrate the impact of different strategies. Mathematical and computer modelling tools can help decision makers embrace these difficulties by providing indications of likely long-term implications of different policies while accounting for the uncertainty around them.

The aim of this research is to develop a mathematical model and appropriate software tool to illustrate how a population evolves over time. We specifically aim to develop a model and accompanying tool to support decisions around commissioning of care services by integrated care systems in England.

The evolution of the population will be represented as a stochastic process based on a discrete-time finite horizon Markov chain model using specifications and assumptions developed in close collaboration with care service commissioners.

This research is supported by a grant from the NHS BNSSG CCG.