## MA50085: Time series

[Page last updated: 05 August 2021]

Owning Department/School: Department of Mathematical Sciences
Credits: 6 [equivalent to 12 CATS credits]
Notional Study Hours: 120
Level: Masters UG & PG (FHEQ level 7)
Period:
Semester 2
Assessment Summary: CW 25%, EX 75%
Assessment Detail:
• Coursework (CW 25%)
• Examination (EX 75%)
Supplementary Assessment:
Like-for-like reassessment (where allowed by programme regulations)
Requisites:
Description: Aims:
To introduce a variety of statistical models for time series, cover the main methods for analysis and give practical experience in fitting such models.

Learning Outcomes:
At the end of the course, the student should be able to:
* compute and interpret a correlogram and a sample spectrum
* derive the properties of ARIMA and state-space models
* choose an appropriate ARIMA model for a given set of data and fit the model using R
* compute forecasts for a variety of linear methods and models.
* demonstrate critical thinking and a deep understanding of some aspects of time series theory and application.

Skills:
Numeracy T/F A
Problem Solving T/F A
Written and Spoken Communication F A

Content:
Introduction: Examples, simple descriptive techniques, trend, seasonality, the correlogram.
Probability models for time series: Stationarity; moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), ARMA and ARIMA models.
Estimating the autocorrelation function and fitting ARIMA models.
Forecasting: Exponential smoothing, Forecasting from ARIMA models.
Stationary processes in the frequency domain: The spectral density function, the periodogram, spectral analysis.
State-space models: Dynamic linear models and the Kalman filter.

Programme availability:

#### MA50085 is Optional on the following programmes:

Department of Mathematical Sciences

 Notes: This unit catalogue is applicable for the 2021/22 academic year only. Students continuing their studies into 2022/23 and beyond should not assume that this unit will be available in future years in the format displayed here for 2021/22. Programmes and units are subject to change in accordance with normal University procedures. Availability of units will be subject to constraints such as staff availability, minimum and maximum group sizes, and timetabling factors as well as a student's ability to meet any pre-requisite rules. Find out more about these and other important University terms and conditions here.