University of Bath School of Management University of Bath School of Management

Improving Accuracy in Demand Forecasting

Improving Accuracy in Demand Forecasting

An innovative method enabling firms to improve the accuracy of their demand forecasting has resulted from research analysing data from 70,000 company sales forecasts. It was concluded that, although judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts were common, they often wasted management time, reduced accuracy and introduced bias.

University of Bath led research, which determined how computer-based systems could support more effective forecasting adjustments, has informed the design of a new commercial product, ForecastQTTM. This product is now being marketed globally. Early applications of the product suggest estimated savings of 2% of total revenue for one multinational company and $200m for another. The research has also influenced the development of software and services for clients at SAS, the world's largest privately owned software company.