13 November 2024
- Title: TBC
- Speaker: Dr Jack Fosten (Bayes Business School) and Dr Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy (University of Aukland, New Zealand)
- Location: Room 2.2, 3 East
- Time: 2.45pm – 4pm
About this seminar
In this seminar, Dr Jack Fosten and Dr Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy will discuss a dynamic difference-in-differences (DID) model that incorporates autoregressive components to produce a dynamic sequence of treatment effects of any arbitrary length. This feature improves upon event study DID designs that only produce as many treatment effects as post-treatment observations in the sample, meaning we can extend the horizon of analysis and measure policy effects over the long run. Their model also allows for the treatment to induce a structural break in the autoregressive dynamics of the outcome variable, which is important for cases where the treatment affects not only the level of the outcome variable, but also its speed of adjustment in response to the policy intervention and other shocks. They derive the properties of the OLS estimator of the model in a large n environment, showing that it has an O(1/T) bias that can be attenuated using a novel bias correction formula. They apply the method by revisiting the effect of democracy on growth, finding that growth is more persistent in democracies than autocracies, and that the bias correction yields a long-run effect on GDP per capita that is 20% larger than the uncorrected OLS estimator.
20 November 2024
- Title: TBC
- Speaker: Dr Lukas Myar, University of Essex
- Location: Room 2.2, 3 East
- Time: 2.45pm – 4pm